Even Keel and the Great Inflation

Regulating Eternal Inflation II The Great Divide

In a previous paper, two of the authors presented a " regulated " picture of eternal inflation. This picture both suggested and drew support from a conjectured discontinuity in the amplitude for tunneling from positive to negative vacuum energy, as the positive vacuum energy was sent to zero; analytic and numerical arguments supporting this conjecture were given. Here we show that this conjectu...

International Great Inflation and Common Monetary Policy∗

The Great Inflation of the 1970s was an international phenomenon. We study whether monetary authorities in the G7 countries were changing their responses to inflation in a similar manner during and following the Great Inflation era. Our results suggest that the common to the G7 countries inflation pattern during the Great Inflation period is associated with a common pattern in the monetary poli...

New tips from TIPS: Identifying inflation expectations and the risk premia of break-even inflation

This paper decomposes the break-even inflation rates derived from inflation-indexed bonds into inflation risk premia, liquidity risk premia, and inflation expectations. I estimate a common factor model with autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (ARCH) errors that extracts co-movements from twentytwo monthly and quarterly indicators to identify these three components. The results indicate...

The Relation Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty In Iran

Explaining Inflation in the Aftermath of the Great Recession

This paper considers whether the Phillips curve can explain the recent behavior of inflation in the United States. Standard formulations of the model predict that the ongoing large shortfall in economic activity relative to full employment should have led to deflation over the past several years. I confirm previous findings that the slope of the Phillips curve has varied over time and probably ...